Chiangmai United 6–0 Khonkaen: Result & Stats

Chiangmai United

FT

6 – 0

Khonkaen

2/16/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 2700th Anniversary Stadium (Chiang Mai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Chiangmai United52%

×Draw24%

Khonkaen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai UnitedExpected goals in this matchKhonkaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Chiangmai United

1.67

Khonkaen

1.06

Chiangmai United creates 58% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 65 away

1.67

creates per match

1.02

1.09

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Chiangmai United

1.67

Khonkaen

1.02

allows per match

Chiangmai United

1.09

Khonkaen

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Khonkaen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw

76%

Chiangmai United or Khonkaen

76%

Draw or Khonkaen

48%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

28%

Khonkaen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

81%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

50%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

23%

Khonkaen 1+ goals

65%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

29%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

68%

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chiangmai United scores more

52%

level

24%

Khonkaen scores more

24%

Chiangmai United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff