Khon Kaen United 0–0 Chiangmai FC: Result & Stats

Khon Kaen United

FT

0 – 0

Chiangmai FC

2/10/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 20Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khon Kaen United52%

×Draw24%

Chiangmai FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khon Kaen UnitedExpected goals in this matchChiangmai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Khon Kaen United

1.73

Chiangmai FC

1.10

Khon Kaen United creates 57% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 82 away

2.06

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Khon Kaen United

2.06

Chiangmai FC

1.20

allows per match

Khon Kaen United

1.00

Chiangmai FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khon Kaen United ↓

Chiangmai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khon Kaen United or draw

76%

Khon Kaen United or Chiangmai FC

76%

Draw or Chiangmai FC

48%

Winning margin

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

28%

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

82%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

52%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

25%

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

67%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

30%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

68%

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khon Kaen United at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khon Kaen United attack 2.06 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khon Kaen United scores more

52%

level

24%

Chiangmai FC scores more

24%

Khon Kaen United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff