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Chiangmai FC vs Khon Kaen United — League Cup 2021

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
1/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangmai FC46%
×Draw24%
Khon Kaen United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.64
Khon Kaen United
1.27

Chiangmai FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
0.67
Khon Kaen United
1.20

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.33
Khon Kaen United
2.60

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
70%
Chiangmai FC or Khon Kaen United
76%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
54%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
24%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
81%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
49%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
23%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
72%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
36%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
61%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 0.67 + Khon Kaen United defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Khon Kaen United attack 1.20 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
46%
level
24%
Khon Kaen United scores more
30%

Chiangmai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Khon Kaen United

Chiangmai FC beat Khon Kaen United 2-0 in League Cup on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.