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Khon Kaen United vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
FT
3 – 0
Chainat
Chainat
2/6/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khon Kaen United54%
×Draw23%
Chainat22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khon Kaen United
1.77
Chainat
1.04

Khon Kaen United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 105 away

creates per match

Khon Kaen United
2.06
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Khon Kaen United
1.00
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khon Kaen United ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khon Kaen United or draw
78%
Khon Kaen United or Chainat
77%
Draw or Chainat
46%

Winning margin

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
30%
Chainat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
83%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
53%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
26%
Chainat 1+ goals
65%
Chainat 2+ goals
28%
Chainat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
71%
Chainat (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khon Kaen United at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khon Kaen United attack 2.06 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chainat attack 1.07 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khon Kaen United scores more
54%
level
23%
Chainat scores more
22%

Khon Kaen United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khon Kaen United vs Chainat

Khon Kaen United beat Chainat 3-0 in Thai League 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.