Chainat 1–1 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Chainat

FT

1 – 1

Khon Kaen United

2/26/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 3Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chainat45%

×Draw24%

Khon Kaen United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChainatExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.29

Chainat

1.61

Khon Kaen United

1.29

Chainat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 35 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Chainat

1.63

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Chainat

1.19

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chainat or draw

69%

Chainat or Khon Kaen United

76%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

55%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+

23%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals

80%

Chainat 2+ goals

48%

Chainat 3+ goals

22%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

72%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

37%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)

59%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chainat scores more

45%

level

24%

Khon Kaen United scores more

31%

Chainat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff