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Khon Kaen United vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
FT
3 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
2/22/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khon Kaen United51%
×Draw24%
Ayutthaya FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khon Kaen United
1.72
Ayutthaya FC
1.13

Khon Kaen United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 101 away

creates per match

Khon Kaen United
2.06
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Khon Kaen United
1.00
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khon Kaen United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khon Kaen United or draw
75%
Khon Kaen United or Ayutthaya FC
76%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
49%

Winning margin

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
28%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
82%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
51%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
25%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
68%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
31%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
67%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khon Kaen United at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khon Kaen United attack 2.06 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khon Kaen United scores more
51%
level
24%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
25%

Khon Kaen United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Khon Kaen United 3–0 Ayutthaya FC

Khon Kaen United beat Ayutthaya FC 3-0 in Thai League 2 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.