Ayutthaya FC 0–1 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Ayutthaya FC

FT

0 – 1

Khon Kaen United

12/27/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 18Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ayutthaya FC43%

×Draw25%

Khon Kaen United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.33

Ayutthaya FC

1.57

Khon Kaen United

1.33

Ayutthaya FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

1.54

creates per match

1.40

1.26

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

68%

Ayutthaya FC or Khon Kaen United

75%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

57%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

22%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

79%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

46%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

21%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

74%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

38%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

57%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

43%

level

25%

Khon Kaen United scores more

32%

Ayutthaya FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff