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Khimki vs Torpedo Moskva — Cup 2019

Khimki
Khimkiadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
3/5/2020CupCup · Quarter-finalsArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khimki40%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Moskva36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.61
Torpedo Moskva
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.85
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

allows per match

Khimki
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
64%
Khimki or Torpedo Moskva
76%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
60%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
20%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
80%
Khimki 2+ goals
48%
Khimki 3+ goals
22%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
44%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
53%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + Khimki defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimki scores more
40%
level
24%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
36%

Khimki at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Khimki 5–1 Torpedo Moskva

Khimki beat Torpedo Moskva 5-1 in Cup on March 5, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.