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Khimki vs Pyunik Yerevan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimki
Khimki
CANC
11:00
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
2/11/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khimki43%
×Draw25%
Pyunik Yerevan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.50
Pyunik Yerevan
1.27

Khimki creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.50
Pyunik Yerevan
1.25

allows per match

Khimki
1.30
Pyunik Yerevan
1.50

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
68%
Khimki or Pyunik Yerevan
75%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
57%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
21%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
78%
Khimki 2+ goals
44%
Khimki 3+ goals
19%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
72%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
36%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
57%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.50 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.25 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimki scores more
43%
level
25%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
32%

Khimki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khimki vs Pyunik Yerevan — Match Preview

Khimki face Pyunik Yerevan on February 11, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Khimki host Pyunik Yerevan at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.