Khimki 2–0 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

2 – 0

Pyunik Yerevan

1/28/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Calista Sports Center - Field A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khimki52%

×Draw24%

Pyunik Yerevan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.12

Khimki

1.75

Pyunik Yerevan

1.12

Khimki creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.94

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Khimki

1.94

Pyunik Yerevan

1.11

allows per match

Khimki

1.13

Pyunik Yerevan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

76%

Khimki or Pyunik Yerevan

76%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

48%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

29%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

83%

Khimki 2+ goals

52%

Khimki 3+ goals

25%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

67%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

31%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

68%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.94 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.11 + Khimki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khimki scores more

52%

level

24%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

24%

Khimki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff