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Khimki vs Lokomotiv Moscow — Premier League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
12/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki35%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Moscow39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.33
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.23
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.52

allows per match

Khimki
1.30
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.43

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
61%
Khimki or Lokomotiv Moscow
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow
65%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
74%
Khimki 2+ goals
38%
Khimki 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
41%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
48%
Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimki scores more
35%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
39%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khimki 3–2 Lokomotiv Moscow

Khimki beat Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 in Premier League on December 17, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.