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Khimki vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Khimki
Khimki
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetovadvanced
2/22/2021CupCup · Round of 16Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Khimki43%
×Draw23%
Krylya Sovetov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.77
Krylya Sovetov
1.58

Khimki creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.85
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Khimki
1.62
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
65%
Khimki or Krylya Sovetov
77%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
57%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
22%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
83%
Khimki 2+ goals
53%
Khimki 3+ goals
26%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
47%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
55%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Khimki defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimki scores more
43%
level
23%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
35%

Khimki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Khimki 4-0 in Cup on February 22, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.