Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimki vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
K. Khosonov 60'
4/24/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Khimki52%
×Draw27%
KAMAZ21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.45
KAMAZ
0.81

Khimki creates 79% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 88 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.71
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Khimki
0.96
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
79%
Khimki or KAMAZ
73%
Draw or KAMAZ
48%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
26%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
77%
Khimki 2+ goals
42%
Khimki 3+ goals
18%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
56%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
19%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
71%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.71 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Khimki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khimki scores more
52%
level
27%
KAMAZ scores more
21%

Khimki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
A. Koryan← P. Golubović
39'
S. Abdullaev← A. Gagloev
40'
Valentin Paltsev
45'
Artem Gyurdzhan
46'
I. Sadygov← B. Magomedov
60'
K. Khosonov
71'
D. Starodub← R. Manuylov
71'
M. Lauk← B. Fartuna
73'
T. Kasimov← A. Rudenko
73'
R. Netfullin← I. Sadygov
78'
D. Rodin← Y. Kirillov
78'
R. Zashchepkin← V. Pochivalin
84'
O. Isaenko← R. Yuzepchuk

Statistics

KhimkiKAMAZ
Discipline
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 1–0 KAMAZ

Khimki beat KAMAZ 1-0 in First League on April 24, 2024.

Goals: K. Khosonov (60').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.