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KAMAZ vs Khimki — First League 2018

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
V. Paltsev 85', 81'
B. Magomedov 60'
A. Rudenko 39'
10/22/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

KAMAZ38%
×Draw28%
Khimki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.25
Khimki
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 50 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.31
Khimki
1.38

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.97
Khimki
1.20

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
66%
KAMAZ or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
62%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
17%
Khimki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
71%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
36%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
13%
Khimki 1+ goals
69%
Khimki 2+ goals
33%
Khimki 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
53%
Khimki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Khimki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Khimki attack 1.38 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KAMAZ scores more
38%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
34%

KAMAZ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Mokhammad← A. Kulishev
39'
A. Rudenko
45'
Saveliy Ratnikov
56'
Valeri Pochivalin
60'
B. Magomedov
63'
A. Gagloev← B. Fartuna
66'
A. Arkhipov← A. Rudenko
66'
I. Berkovskiy← B. Magomedov
71'
Ilya Berkovskyi
77'
G. Borisenko← A. Ukomskiy
77'
P. Gorelov← I. Badrtdinov
77'
I. Asylov← S. Ratnikov
81'
V. Paltsev
85'
R. Zashchepkin← D. Talikin
85'
I. Sadygov← A. Mokhammad
85'
L. Skvortsov← A. Arkhipov
85'
V. Paltsev
86'
Valentin Paltsev

Statistics

KAMAZKhimki
Overview
9Corners5
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

KAMAZ 2 – 2 Khimki

KAMAZ and Khimki drew 2-2 in First League on October 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Rudenko (39'), B. Magomedov (60'), V. Paltsev (81', 85').

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.