Khimki 1–3 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FK Neftekhimik

A. Rudenko 73'

M. Shorkin 54'

D. Lipovoy 31'

M. Petrov 24'

3/18/2024

First League · Round 23Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Khimki46%

×Draw27%

FK Neftekhimik27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Khimki

1.41

FK Neftekhimik

1.02

Khimki creates 38% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 122 away

1.65

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Khimki

1.65

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Khimki

0.94

FK Neftekhimik

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

73%

Khimki or FK Neftekhimik

73%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

54%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

22%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

76%

Khimki 2+ goals

41%

Khimki 3+ goals

17%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

64%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

27%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

63%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.65 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Khimki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki scores more

46%

level

27%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

27%

Khimki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Sergey Terekhov

24'

M. Petrov

26'

Y. Zhuravlev← D. Stepanov

27'

Butta Magomedov

31'

D. Lipovoy

45+1'

Maksim Petrov

46'

P. Golubović← O. Isaenko

46'

A. Rudenko← B. Magomedov

46'

46'

54'

57'

61'

63'

71'

K. Morozov← D. Lipovoy

73'

A. Rudenko

80'

K. Panchenko← T. Kasimov

82'

A. Kotik← S. Dzhamilov

90+5'

D. Sagutkin← R. Denisov

90+5'

D. Kokoev← K. Shiltsov

Statistics

KhimkiFK

Overview

8Corners4

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

First League: Khimki 1–3 FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat Khimki 3-1 in First League on March 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Petrov (24'), D. Lipovoy (31'), M. Shorkin (54'), A. Rudenko (73').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Khimki vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Khimki 1–3 FK Neftekhimik