FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Khimki: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khimki

K. Khosonov 87' (pen)

7/30/2023

First League · Round 3Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Neftekhimik38%

×Draw28%

Khimki34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

FK Neftekhimik

1.25

Khimki

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 51 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

0.95

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Khimki

1.39

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Khimki

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

66%

FK Neftekhimik or Khimki

72%

Draw or Khimki

62%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

17%

Khimki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

71%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

36%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

13%

Khimki 1+ goals

69%

Khimki 2+ goals

33%

Khimki 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

53%

Khimki (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Khimki attack 1.39 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

38%

level

28%

Khimki scores more

34%

FK Neftekhimik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Gruznov← A. Kotik

50'

Oleg Isaenko

58'

A. Arkhipov← A. Rudenko

58'

L. Skvortsov← O. Isaenko

58'

P. Avetisyan← A. Koryan

65'

D. Stepanov← A. Mokhammad

66'

Zakhar Volkov

68'

K. Khosonov← B. Magomedov

83'

M. Sitdikov← P. Kotov

83'

S. Dzhamilov← M. Petrov

87'

K. KhosonovPenalty

90+3'

M. Pershin← K. Bazelyuk

90+3'

N. Kasatkin← V. Galiulin

Statistics

FKKhimki

Overview

11Corners8

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3