Khimki 0–1 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

6/30/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UTC Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Khimki42%

×Draw26%

Fakel Voronezh32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.20

Khimki

1.43

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

Khimki creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.27

1.13

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Khimki

1.94

Fakel Voronezh

1.27

allows per match

Khimki

1.13

Fakel Voronezh

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

68%

Khimki or Fakel Voronezh

74%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

58%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

20%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

76%

Khimki 2+ goals

42%

Khimki 3+ goals

17%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

70%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

34%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

57%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.94 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.27 + Khimki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimki scores more

42%

level

26%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

32%

Khimki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff