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Khimki vs Fakel — Premier League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fakel
Fakel
3/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Khimki47%
×Draw26%
Fakel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.45
Fakel
1.02

Khimki creates 42% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 46 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.23
Fakel
0.74

allows per match

Khimki
1.30
Fakel
1.67

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
73%
Khimki or Fakel
74%
Draw or Fakel
53%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
23%
Fakel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
77%
Khimki 2+ goals
42%
Khimki 3+ goals
18%
Fakel 1+ goals
64%
Fakel 2+ goals
27%
Fakel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
64%
Fakel (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Fakel away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Fakel defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fakel attack 0.74 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimki scores more
47%
level
26%
Fakel scores more
27%

Khimki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khimki 1–0 Fakel

Khimki beat Fakel 1-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.