Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimki vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
CANC
00:00
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
4/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki47%
×Draw26%
Fakel Voronezh27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.52
Fakel Voronezh
1.10

Khimki creates 38% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 89 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
73%
Khimki or Fakel Voronezh
74%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
53%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
24%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
78%
Khimki 2+ goals
45%
Khimki 3+ goals
20%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
67%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
30%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
63%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimki scores more
47%
level
26%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
27%

Khimki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khimki face Fakel Voronezh (First League)

First League returns with Khimki hosting Fakel Voronezh. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.