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Khimki vs Enisey — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimki
Khimki
FT
4 – 2
Enisey
Enisey
7/9/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Khimki46%
×Draw24%
Enisey30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.69
Enisey
1.31

Khimki creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.94
Enisey
1.50

allows per match

Khimki
1.13
Enisey
1.44

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
70%
Khimki or Enisey
76%
Draw or Enisey
54%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
24%
Enisey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
82%
Khimki 2+ goals
50%
Khimki 3+ goals
24%
Enisey 1+ goals
73%
Enisey 2+ goals
38%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
61%
Enisey (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.94 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Enisey attack 1.50 + Khimki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki scores more
46%
level
24%
Enisey scores more
30%

Khimki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Khimki 4–2 Enisey

Khimki beat Enisey 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.