Enisey 4–1 Khimki: Result & Stats | First League

Enisey

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Khimki

M. Savelyev 90+2'

A. Lomakin 63', 50'

A. Mazurin 20'

T. Kasimov 88'

3/30/2024

First League · Round 25Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Enisey39%

×Draw27%

Khimki34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Enisey

1.33

Khimki

1.21

Enisey creates 10% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 51 away

1.49

creates per match

1.39

1.02

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Enisey

1.49

Khimki

1.39

allows per match

Enisey

1.02

Khimki

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

66%

Enisey or Khimki

73%

Draw or Khimki

61%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

18%

Khimki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

74%

Enisey 2+ goals

38%

Enisey 3+ goals

15%

Khimki 1+ goals

70%

Khimki 2+ goals

34%

Khimki 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

54%

Khimki (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.49 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Khimki attack 1.39 + Enisey defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Enisey scores more

39%

level

27%

Khimki scores more

34%

Enisey at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Mazurin

38'

Yuriy Zhuravlev

46'

T. Kasimov← A. Koryan

46'

B. Magomedov← R. Netfullin

50'

61'

63'

66'

69'

D. Stepanov← K. Khosonov

69'

S. Abdullahi← P. Golubović

75'

S. Saaduev← N. Razdorskikh

75'

M. Gashchenkov← A. Mazurin

76'

Danil Stepanov

77'

O. Isaenko← A. Rudenko

80'

M. Savelyev← A. Okladnikov

86'

V. Kichin← A. Maslovskiy

86'

V. Khozin← E. Ivanov

88'

T. Kasimov

90+2'

M. Savelyev

Statistics

EniseyKhimki

Overview

1Corners7

Discipline

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Enisey vs Khimki

Enisey beat Khimki 4-1 in First League on March 30, 2024.

Goals: A. Mazurin (20'), A. Lomakin (50', 63'), T. Kasimov (88'), M. Savelyev (90+2').

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.

Enisey vs Khimki — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Enisey vs Khimki