Khimki 2–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

D. Stepanov 71'

A. Rudenko 62'

V. Krotov 76'

B. Gurtsiev 58'

10/9/2023

First League · Round 13Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Khimki46%

×Draw26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Khimki

1.50

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.10

Khimki creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

1.68

creates per match

1.24

0.96

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Khimki

1.68

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Khimki

0.96

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

72%

Khimki or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

74%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

54%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

78%

Khimki 2+ goals

44%

Khimki 3+ goals

19%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

67%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

30%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

63%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.68 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Khimki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki scores more

46%

level

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

28%

Khimki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

47'

58'

62'

63'

O. Isaenko← A. Kulishev

66'

Petar Golubović

66'

Batraz Gurtsiev

71'

D. Stepanov

75'

B. Khadartsev← B. Gurtsiev

75'

I. Mashukov← A. Chochiev

75'

D. Kobesov← V. Tsarukyan

76'

V. Krotov

81'

K. Panchenko← B. Magomedov

81'

V. Yakovlev← A. Rudenko

81'

S. Kachmazov← A. Zaseev

85'

A. Butaev← A. Khabalov

90+1'

Sergey Terekhov

90'

I. Sadygov← R. Netfullin

Statistics

KhimkiAlaniya

Overview

7Corners3

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 2–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Khimki and Alaniya Vladikavkaz drew 2-2 in First League on October 9, 2023.

Goals: B. Gurtsiev (58'), A. Rudenko (62'), D. Stepanov (71'), V. Krotov (76').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Khimki vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Khimki 2–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz