Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–4 Khimki: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Khimki

I. Mashukov 40'

A. Rudenko 70', 5'

A. Koryan 61'

K. Khosonov 52'

11/20/2023

First League · Round 19Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz39%

×Draw26%

Khimki35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.38

Khimki

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

1.57

creates per match

1.39

1.24

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Khimki

1.39

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Khimki

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

65%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Khimki

74%

Draw or Khimki

61%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

18%

Khimki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

75%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

16%

Khimki 1+ goals

73%

Khimki 2+ goals

38%

Khimki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

52%

Khimki (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Khimki attack 1.39 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

39%

level

26%

Khimki scores more

35%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Rudenko

33'

Alan Chochiev

40'

I. Mashukov

46'

V. Krotov← H. Norchaev

46'

V. Tsarukyan← A. Chochiev

52'

K. Khosonov

54'

Islam Mashukov

58'

D. Stepanov← S. Terekhov

58'

A. Koryan← B. Magomedov

61'

A. Koryan

67'

B. Khadartsev← B. Gurtsiev

67'

A. Khabalov← A. Zaseev

70'

A. Rudenko

78'

Oleg Isaenko

78'

D. Karaev← I. Mashukov

80'

S. Poroykov← O. Isaenko

83'

S. Melentijević← K. Khosonov

83'

K. Panchenko← A. Rudenko

Statistics

AlaniyaKhimki

Overview

6Corners9

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1