Khimki 1–3 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Akhmat Grozny

8/14/2022

Premier League · Round 5Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki41%

×Draw27%

Akhmat Grozny32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.16

Khimki

1.35

Akhmat Grozny

1.16

Khimki creates 16% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 121 away

1.23

creates per match

1.01

1.30

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

68%

Khimki or Akhmat Grozny

73%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

59%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

19%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

74%

Khimki 2+ goals

39%

Khimki 3+ goals

15%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

69%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

32%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

56%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khimki scores more

41%

level

27%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

32%

Khimki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff