Akhmat Grozny 3–0 Khimki: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khimki

E. Kharin 63'

A. Timofeev 49'

V. Karapuzov 28'

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 28Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Akhmat Grozny52%

×Draw24%

Khimki24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.07

Akhmat Grozny

1.71

Khimki

1.07

Akhmat Grozny creates 60% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 61 away

1.27

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.27

Khimki

0.93

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

Khimki

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

76%

Akhmat Grozny or Khimki

76%

Draw or Khimki

48%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

28%

Khimki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

82%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

51%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

24%

Khimki 1+ goals

66%

Khimki 2+ goals

29%

Khimki 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

69%

Khimki (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Khimki attack 0.93 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

52%

level

24%

Khimki scores more

24%

Akhmat Grozny at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Todorović

Akhmat Grozny · D

9.0

Match Events

5'

Stefan Melentijevic

9'

V. Iljin← N. Gbamblé

11'

Artem Timofeev

28'

V. Karapuzov↳ E. Kharin

45'

Aleksandr Dolgov

46'

R. Mirzov← Marcos Guilherme

46'

A. Guliev← S. Melentijević

49'

A. Timofeev↳ D. Todorović

54'

Vladislav Kamilov

61'

Vladislav Karapuzov

63'

E. Kharin

65'

B. Magomedov← V. Lystsov

65'

M. Gbane← Janio Bikel

69'

Darko Todorović

73'

I. Sadygov← A. Dolgov

74'

I. Oleynikov← V. Karapuzov

79'

G. Agalarov← M. Konaté

79'

M. Yakuev← E. Kharin

83'

Gamid AgalarovGoal cancelled

90+3'

Magomed Yakuev

90+2'

Mory Gbane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AkhmatKhimki

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots9

6Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots9

6On Target3

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

299Total Passes431

197Accurate Passes317

66%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Khimki

Akhmat Grozny beat Khimki 3-0 in Premier League on May 20, 2023.

Goals: V. Karapuzov (28'), A. Timofeev (49'), E. Kharin (63').

Khimki controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.

Akhmat Grozny vs Khimki — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Khimki