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Khimki U20 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Khimki U20
Khimki U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
A. Dyakonov 72'
K. Yatsenko 82'
B. Kondramashin 2' (pen)
11/4/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Khimki U2042%
×Draw24%
Fakel U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki U20
1.66
Fakel U19
1.47

Khimki U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 60 away

creates per match

Khimki U20
1.57
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Khimki U20
1.81
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Khimki U20+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki U20 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Khimki U20 or draw
66%
Khimki U20 or Fakel U19
76%
Draw or Fakel U19
58%

Winning margin

Khimki U20 wins by 2+
22%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Khimki U20 1+ goals
81%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
49%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
23%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
77%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
43%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki U20 attack 1.57 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Khimki U20 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimki U20 scores more
42%
level
24%
Fakel U19 scores more
34%

Khimki U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khimki U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
B. KondramashinPenalty
72'
A. Dyakonov
82'
K. Yatsenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khimki U20 1 – 2 Fakel U19

Fakel U19 beat Khimki U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on November 4, 2022.

Goals: B. Kondramashin (2' pen), A. Dyakonov (72'), K. Yatsenko (82').

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.