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Fakel U19 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
9/2/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 9Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fakel U1950%
×Draw23%
Khimki U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.84
Khimki U20
1.31

Fakel U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
73%
Fakel U19 or Khimki U20
77%
Draw or Khimki U20
50%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
28%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
84%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
55%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
28%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
73%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
38%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Khimki U20 scores more
27%

Fakel U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs Khimki U20

Fakel U19 beat Khimki U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.