Khimki II 1–1 Khimik-Arsenal: Result & Stats

Khimki II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Khimik-Arsenal

10/29/2020

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimki II39%

×Draw26%

Khimik-Arsenal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki IIExpected goals in this matchKhimik-Arsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.27

Khimki II

1.36

Khimik-Arsenal

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

1.46

creates per match

1.27

1.26

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Khimki II

1.46

Khimik-Arsenal

1.27

allows per match

Khimki II

1.26

Khimik-Arsenal

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Khimik-Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw

65%

Khimki II or Khimik-Arsenal

74%

Draw or Khimik-Arsenal

61%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+

18%

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals

74%

Khimki II 2+ goals

39%

Khimki II 3+ goals

16%

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals

72%

Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals

36%

Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)

53%

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Khimik-Arsenal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.27 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimki II scores more

39%

level

26%

Khimik-Arsenal scores more

35%

Khimki II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff