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Khimik-Arsenal vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
5/30/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal46%
×Draw23%
Khimki II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik-Arsenal
1.77
Khimki II
1.42

Khimik-Arsenal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.73
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.47
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw
69%
Khimik-Arsenal or Khimki II
77%
Draw or Khimki II
54%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
25%
Khimki II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
83%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
53%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
26%
Khimki II 1+ goals
76%
Khimki II 2+ goals
41%
Khimki II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
60%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more
46%
level
23%
Khimki II scores more
31%

Khimik-Arsenal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik-Arsenal vs Khimki II

Khimik-Arsenal beat Khimki II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Novomoskovsk.