Khimki II 1–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Khimki II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

4/2/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Khimki II42%

×Draw25%

Avangard Kursk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki IIExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.27

Khimki II

1.48

Avangard Kursk

1.27

Khimki II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

1.46

creates per match

1.28

1.26

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Khimki II

1.46

Avangard Kursk

1.28

allows per match

Khimki II

1.26

Avangard Kursk

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw

67%

Khimki II or Avangard Kursk

75%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

58%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+

20%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals

77%

Khimki II 2+ goals

43%

Khimki II 3+ goals

19%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

72%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

36%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)

56%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimki II scores more

42%

level

25%

Avangard Kursk scores more

33%

Khimki II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff