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Avangard Kursk vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
6/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 12Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Avangard Kursk48%
×Draw24%
Khimki II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.66
Khimki II
1.19

Avangard Kursk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.50
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
73%
Avangard Kursk or Khimki II
76%
Draw or Khimki II
52%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
25%
Khimki II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
81%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
49%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
23%
Khimki II 1+ goals
70%
Khimki II 2+ goals
33%
Khimki II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
64%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
48%
level
24%
Khimki II scores more
27%

Avangard Kursk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Khimki II

Avangard Kursk beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.