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Khimik Vurnary vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
8/27/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Khimik Vurnary37%
×Draw26%
Irtysh Omsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Vurnary
1.36
Irtysh Omsk
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.05
Irtysh Omsk
1.70

allows per match

Khimik Vurnary
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.67

finishing

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Vurnary ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khimik Vurnary or draw
63%
Khimik Vurnary or Irtysh Omsk
74%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
63%

Winning margin

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
17%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
74%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
39%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
16%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
74%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
39%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
50%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Vurnary at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.05 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.70 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khimik Vurnary scores more
37%
level
26%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
37%

Khimik Vurnary at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khimik Vurnary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Vurnary vs Irtysh Omsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Khimik Vurnary 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Vurnary.