Irtysh Omsk 3–0 Khimik Vurnary: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Vurnary

11/9/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Irtysh Omsk47%

×Draw26%

Khimik Vurnary27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.08

Irtysh Omsk

1.49

Khimik Vurnary

1.08

Irtysh Omsk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.61

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.61

Khimik Vurnary

1.23

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.93

Khimik Vurnary

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

73%

Irtysh Omsk or Khimik Vurnary

74%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

53%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

23%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

77%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

44%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

19%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

66%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

29%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

63%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.61 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Irtysh Omsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

47%

level

26%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

27%

Irtysh Omsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff