Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–0 Granit: Result & Stats

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Granit

10/31/2020

1. Division · Round 24Stadyen Chimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk39%

×Draw27%

Granit34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchGranit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.18

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.28

Granit

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.34

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Granit

1.02

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Granit

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Granit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Granit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

66%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Granit

73%

Draw or Granit

61%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

17%

Granit wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

72%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

37%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

14%

Granit 1+ goals

69%

Granit 2+ goals

33%

Granit 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

53%

Granit (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Granit away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Granit defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Granit attack 1.02 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

39%

level

27%

Granit scores more

34%

Khimik Svetlogorsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Svetlogorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Kobesov

64'

E. Bobruk← D. Saenko

69'

N. Galuza← A. Vorontsov

73'

V. Brinchuk← V. Kabachevskiy

80'

K. Malitskiy← M. Dashuk

Khimik

Granit

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Cherepnev

69'▲N. Galuza←▼A. Vorontsov

80'▲K. Malitskiy←▼M. Dashuk

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

GaluzaMalitskiyLabadzeYakhnoMakarov

64'▲E. Bobruk←▼D. Saenko

73'▲V. Brinchuk←▼V. Kabachevskiy

Granit substitutes

BobrukBrinchukStryzheusMartyug