Granit 0–0 Khimik Svetlogorsk: Result & Stats

Granit

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Svetlogorsk

8/31/2019

1. Division · Round 18Stadyen Poles'e (Luninets)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Granit45%

×Draw25%

Khimik Svetlogorsk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranitExpected goals in this matchKhimik Svetlogorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Granit

1.54

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.20

Granit creates 28% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 59 away

1.07

creates per match

0.92

1.47

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Granit

1.07

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.92

allows per match

Granit

1.47

Khimik Svetlogorsk

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit+0.00on par

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Granit or draw

70%

Granit or Khimik Svetlogorsk

75%

Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk

55%

Winning margin

Granit wins by 2+

23%

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Granit 1+ goals

79%

Granit 2+ goals

45%

Granit 3+ goals

20%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

70%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

34%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Granit (draw refunded)

60%

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit attack 1.07 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.54

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + Granit defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Granit scores more

45%

level

25%

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

30%

Granit at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Granit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Levkovets← A. Belezyak

66'

A. Prokopenko← V. Balbukh

85'

E. Bobruk← R. Kozel

90+1'

A. Belyavskiy← V. Belyavskiy

90+3'

R. Zaytsev← D. Khalimonchikov

Granit

Khimik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Vopsev

46'▲A. Levkovets←▼A. Belezyak

85'▲E. Bobruk←▼R. Kozel

Granit substitutes

LevkovetsBobrukSysuevMaglakelidzeOkhremchukLukashevich

Manager: S. Petrushevski

66'▲A. Prokopenko←▼V. Balbukh

90+1'▲A. Belyavskiy←▼V. Belyavskiy

90+3'▲R. Zaytsev←▼D. Khalimonchikov

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

ProkopenkoBelyavskiyZaytsevGalyakLabadzeTanko

Match Recap: Granit vs Khimik Svetlogorsk

Granit and Khimik Svetlogorsk drew 0-0 in 1. Division on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Poles'e (Luninets).

Granit vs Khimik Svetlogorsk — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Granit vs Khimik Svetlogorsk