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Khimik Svetlogorsk vs FC Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Khimik Svetlogorsk
Khimik Svetlogorsk
FT
0 – 1
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
5/7/20161. Division1. Division · Round 4Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk14%
×Draw21%
FC Gomel65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Svetlogorsk
0.74
FC Gomel
1.92

FC Gomel creates 159% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.02
FC Gomel
2.46

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk
1.37
FC Gomel
0.46

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw
35%
Khimik Svetlogorsk or FC Gomel
79%
Draw or FC Gomel
86%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+
4%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals
52%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals
17%
Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals
4%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
85%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
57%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)
17%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 57 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.02 + FC Gomel defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.74

FC Gomel attack 2.46 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more
14%
level
21%
FC Gomel scores more
65%

FC Gomel at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Khimik Svetlogorsk 0–1 FC Gomel

FC Gomel beat Khimik Svetlogorsk 1-0 in 1. Division on May 7, 2016.

The match was played at Stadyen Bumashnik (Svetlahorsk).