FC Gomel 2–1 Khimik Svetlogorsk: Result & Stats

FC Gomel

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Svetlogorsk

9/4/2016

1. Division · Round 17Stadyen Central'ny (Homel' (Gomel))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Gomel63%

×Draw21%

Khimik Svetlogorsk16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GomelExpected goals in this matchKhimik Svetlogorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.86

FC Gomel

1.98

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.86

FC Gomel creates 130% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

1.94

creates per match

0.92

0.81

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

FC Gomel

1.94

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.92

allows per match

FC Gomel

0.81

Khimik Svetlogorsk

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw

84%

FC Gomel or Khimik Svetlogorsk

79%

Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk

37%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+

39%

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals

86%

FC Gomel 2+ goals

59%

FC Gomel 3+ goals

31%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

58%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

21%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)

80%

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.94 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.98

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + FC Gomel defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Gomel scores more

63%

level

21%

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

16%

FC Gomel at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff