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Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
6/3/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk37%
×Draw26%
Dinamo St. Petersburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 61 away

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.16
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw
63%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Dinamo St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
63%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
74%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
38%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
50%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
37%
level
26%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
37%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khimik Dzerzhinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Dzerzhinsk.