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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
4/29/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg46%
×Draw25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.58
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.21

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
71%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
54%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
23%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
21%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
70%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
34%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
61%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
46%
level
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
29%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.