Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Baltika BFU: Result & Stats

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika BFU

4/3/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk39%

×Draw27%

Baltika BFU34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik DzerzhinskExpected goals in this matchBaltika BFU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.21

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.32

Baltika BFU

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

1.22

creates per match

1.25

1.16

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.22

Baltika BFU

1.25

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.16

Baltika BFU

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Baltika BFU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw

66%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Baltika BFU

73%

Draw or Baltika BFU

61%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

18%

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

73%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

38%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

15%

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

70%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

34%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

54%

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

39%

level

27%

Baltika BFU scores more

34%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimik Dzerzhinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff