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Baltika BFU vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
5/8/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika BFU43%
×Draw25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.23

Baltika BFU creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
69%
Baltika BFU or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
57%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
21%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
78%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
44%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
19%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
71%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
35%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
58%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
43%
level
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
31%

Baltika BFU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Baltika BFU 3–2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Baltika BFU beat Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.