Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

1/25/2023

Azadegan League · Round 19Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad46%

×Draw29%

Fajr Sepasi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.84

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.26

Fajr Sepasi

0.84

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 50% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

1.67

creates per match

1.03

0.66

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

75%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Fajr Sepasi

71%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

54%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

21%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

72%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

36%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

13%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

57%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

21%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

65%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

46%

level

29%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

25%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff