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Fajr Sepasi vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
I. Purafraz 81'
M. Sharifi 45+3'
S. Zare 38'
5/2/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fajr Sepasi44%
×Draw31%
Kheybar Khorramabad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.14
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.77

Fajr Sepasi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 67 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.50
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
75%
Fajr Sepasi or Kheybar Khorramabad
69%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
56%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
19%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
68%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
32%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
11%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
54%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
18%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
64%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.50 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
44%
level
31%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
25%

Fajr Sepasi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
S. Zare
45+3'
M. Sharifi
81'
I. Purafraz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 3–0 Kheybar Khorramabad

Fajr Sepasi beat Kheybar Khorramabad 3-0 in Azadegan League on May 2, 2024.

Goals: S. Zare (38'), M. Sharifi (45+3'), I. Purafraz (81').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.