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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
3 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
H. Shahabi 4'
9/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad63%
×Draw24%
Damash Gilanian13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.64
Damash Gilanian
0.58

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 183% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Damash Gilanian
0.51

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Damash Gilanian
1.61

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
87%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Damash Gilanian
76%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
37%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
35%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
81%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
49%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
23%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
44%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
12%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
83%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Damash Gilanian attack 0.51 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
63%
level
24%
Damash Gilanian scores more
13%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
H. Shahabi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 3–0 Damash Gilanian

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Damash Gilanian 3-0 in Azadegan League on September 25, 2023.

Goals: H. Shahabi (4').

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.