Damash Gilanian 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

Damash Gilanian

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kheybar Khorramabad

H. Taherkhani 44'

4/3/2024

Azadegan League · Round 21Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Damash Gilanian30%

×Draw33%

Kheybar Khorramabad38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Damash GilanianExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

0.98

Damash Gilanian

0.84

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.98

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

0.91

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Damash Gilanian

0.91

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.04

allows per match

Damash Gilanian

0.91

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw

62%

Damash Gilanian or Kheybar Khorramabad

67%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

70%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

10%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

57%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

21%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

5%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

62%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

26%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

44%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 66 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.84

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more

30%

level

33%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

38%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

H. Taherkhani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff