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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
3/4/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad63%
×Draw23%
Chooka Talesh14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.70
Chooka Talesh
0.64

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 166% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
86%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Chooka Talesh
77%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
37%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
36%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
82%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
51%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
24%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
47%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
14%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
82%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
63%
level
23%
Chooka Talesh scores more
14%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 2–0 Chooka Talesh

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Chooka Talesh 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.