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Chooka Talesh vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
3/17/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh30%
×Draw30%
Kheybar Khorramabad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
0.96
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.16

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
60%
Chooka Talesh or Kheybar Khorramabad
70%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
70%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
11%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
62%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
25%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
7%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
69%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
32%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
43%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
30%
level
30%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
40%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Chooka Talesh and Kheybar Khorramabad drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.