Kheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Chadormalu SC

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chadormalu SC

3/5/2024

Azadegan League · Round 22Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad41%

×Draw30%

Chadormalu SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.91

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.14

Chadormalu SC

0.91

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

1.67

creates per match

1.16

0.66

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

71%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Chadormalu SC

70%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

59%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

17%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

68%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

32%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

11%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

60%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

23%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

59%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

41%

level

30%

Chadormalu SC scores more

29%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff