Chadormalu SC 2–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

Chadormalu SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kheybar Khorramabad

10/24/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Nassiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chadormalu SC50%

×Draw32%

Kheybar Khorramabad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.56

Chadormalu SC

1.14

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.56

Chadormalu SC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.15

creates per match

0.54

0.58

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.15

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.54

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.58

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

82%

Chadormalu SC or Kheybar Khorramabad

68%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

50%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

22%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

68%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

32%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

11%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

43%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

11%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

73%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.58 · 26 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.15 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 0.54 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

50%

level

32%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

18%

Chadormalu SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff