Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kheybar Khorramabad vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
1 – 0
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
4/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad47%
×Draw27%
Baderan Tehran25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.39
Baderan Tehran
0.94

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 48% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
75%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Baderan Tehran
73%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
53%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
23%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
75%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
40%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
16%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
61%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
24%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
65%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
47%
level
27%
Baderan Tehran scores more
25%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Baderan Tehran

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Baderan Tehran 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.